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Projections of demand for cardiovascular surgery and supply of surgeons

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Affiliated Author(s)
이중정박남희
Alternative Author(s)
Lee, Jung JeungPark, Nam Hee
Journal Title
Korean Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery
ISSN
2233-601X
Issued Date
2016
Keyword
Health policyEconomicsmedicalThoracic surgeryHealth services needsdemand
Abstract
Background: While demand for cardiovascular surgery is expected to increase gradually along with the rapid
increase in cardiovascular diseases with respect to the aging population, the supply of thoracic and cardiovascular
surgeons has been continuously decreasing over the past 10 years. Consequently, this study aims
to achieve guidance in establishing health care policy by analyzing the supply and demand for cardiovascular
surgeries in the medical service area of Korea. Methods: After investigating the actual number of cardiovascular
surgeries performed using the National Health Insurance claim data of the Health Insurance
Review and Assessment Service, as well as drawing from national statistics concerning the elderly population
aged 65 and over, this study estimated the number of future cardiovascular surgeries by using a cell-based
model. To be able to analyze the supply and demand of surgeons, the recent status of new surgeons specializing
in thoracic and cardiovascular surgeries and the ratio of their subspecialties in cardiovascular surgeries
were investigated. Then, while taking three different scenarios into account, the number of cardiovascular
surgeons expected be working in 5-year periods was projected. Results: The number of cardiovascular surgeries,
which was recorded at 10,581 cases in 2014, is predicted to increase consistently to reach a demand
of 15,501 cases in 2040—an increase of 46.5%. There was a total of 245 cardiovascular surgeons at work in
2014. Looking at 5 year spans in the future, the number of surgeons expected to be supplied in 2040 is
184, to retire is 249, and expected to be working is 309—an increase of -24.9%, 1.6%, and 26.1%, respectively
compared to those in 2014. This forecasts a demand-supply imbalance in every scenario.
Conclusion: Cardiovascular surgeons are the most central resource in the medical service of highly specialized
cardiovascular surgeries, and fostering the surgeons requires much time, effort, and resources; therefore, by
analyzing the various factors affecting the supply of cardiovascular surgeons, an active intervention of policies
can be prescribed for the areas that have failed to meet the appropriate market distributions.
Department
Dept. of Thoracic & Cardiovascular Surgery (흉부외과학)
Dept. of Preventive Medicine (예방의학)
Publisher
School of Medicine
Citation
Jung Jeung Lee et al. (2016). Projections of demand for cardiovascular surgery and supply of surgeons. Korean Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, 49(suppl.1), S37–S43. doi: 10.5090/kjtcs.2016.49.S1.S37
Type
Article
ISSN
2233-601X
DOI
10.5090/kjtcs.2016.49.S1.S37
URI
https://kumel.medlib.dsmc.or.kr/handle/2015.oak/32515
Appears in Collections:
1. School of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Preventive Medicine (예방의학)
1. School of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Thoracic & Cardiovascular Surgery (흉부외과학)
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