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DELirium Predicition Based on Hospital Information (Delphi) in General Surgery Patients

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Author(s)
Min Young KimUi Jun ParkHyoung Tae KimWon Hyun Cho
Keimyung Author(s)
Park, Ui JunKim, Hyoung TaeCho, Won Hyun
Department
Dept. of Surgery (외과학)
Journal Title
Medicine
Issued Date
2016
Volume
95
Issue
12
Abstract
To develop a simple and accurate delirium prediction score
that would allow identification of individuals with a high probability of
postoperative delirium on the basis of preoperative and immediate
postoperative data.
Postoperative delirium, although transient, is associated with
adverse outcomes after surgery. However, there has been no appropriate
tool to predict postoperative delirium.
This was a prospective observational single-center study, which
consisted of the development of the DELirium Prediction based on
Hospital Information (Delphi) score (n¼561) and its validation
(n¼533). We collected potential risk factors for postoperative delirium,
which were identified by conducting a comprehensive review of the
literatures.
Age, low physical activity, hearing impairment, heavy alcoholism,
history of prior delirium, intensive care unit (ICU) admission,
emergency surgery, open surgery, and increased preoperative Creactive
protein were identified as independent predictors of postoperative
delirium. The Delphi score was generated using logistic
regression coefficients. The maximum Delphi score was 15 and the
optimal cut-off point identified with the Youden index was 6.5.
Generated area under the (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic
(ROC) curve was 0.911 (95% CI: 0.88–0.94). In the validation
study, the calculated AUC of the ROC curve based on the
Delphi score was 0.938 (95% Cl: 0.91–0.97). We divided the validation
cohort into the low-risk group (Delphi score 0–6) and high-risk
group (7–15). Sensitivity of Delphi score was 80.8% and
specificity 92.5%.
Our proposed Delphi score could help health-care provider to
predict the development of delirium and make possible targeted
intervention to prevent delirium in high-risk surgery patients.
Keimyung Author(s)(Kor)
박의준
김형태
조원현
Publisher
School of Medicine
Citation
Min Young Kim et al. (2016). DELirium Predicition Based on Hospital Information (Delphi) in General Surgery Patients. Medicine, 95(12), 1–7. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000003072
Type
Article
ISSN
0025-7974
DOI
10.1097/MD.0000000000003072
URI
https://kumel.medlib.dsmc.or.kr/handle/2015.oak/33176
Appears in Collections:
1. School of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Surgery (외과학)
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