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A risk scoring system to predict progression to severe pneumonia in patients with Covid-19

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Author(s)
Ji Yeon LeeByung-Ho NamMhinjine KimJongmin HwangJin Young KimMiri HyunHyun Ah KimChi-Heum Cho
Keimyung Author(s)
Lee, Ji YeonHwang, Jong MinKim, Jin YoungHyun, Mi RiKim, Hyun AhCho, Chi Heum
Department
Dept. of Internal Medicine (내과학)
Dept. of Radiology (영상의학)
Dept. of Obstetrics & Gynecology (산부인과학)
Journal Title
Sci Rep
Issued Date
2022
Volume
12
Issue
1
Abstract
Rapid outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) raised major concern regarding medical resource constraints. We constructed and validated a scoring system for early prediction of progression to severe pneumonia in patients with Covid-19. A total of 561 patients from a Covid-19 designated hospital in Daegu, South Korea were randomly divided into two cohorts: development cohort (N = 421) and validation cohort (N = 140). We used multivariate logistic regression to identify four independent risk predictors for progression to severe pneumonia and constructed a risk scoring system by giving each factor a number of scores corresponding to its regression coefficient. We calculated risk scores for each patient and defined two groups: low risk (0 to 8 points) and high risk (9 to 20 points). In the development cohort, the sensitivity and specificity were 83.8% and 78.9%. In the validation cohort, the sensitivity and specificity were 70.8% and 79.3%, respectively. The C-statistics was 0.884 (95% CI 0.833–0.934) in the development cohort and 0.828 (95% CI 0.733–0.923) in the validation cohort. This risk scoring system is useful to identify high-risk group for progression to severe pneumonia in Covid-19 patients and can prevent unnecessary overuse of medical care in limited-resource settings.
Keimyung Author(s)(Kor)
이지연
황종민
김진영
현미리
김현아
조치흠
Publisher
School of Medicine (의과대학)
Citation
Ji Yeon Lee et al. (2022). A risk scoring system to predict progression to severe pneumonia in patients with Covid-19. Sci Rep, 12(1), 5390. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-07610-9
Type
Article
ISSN
2045-2322
Source
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-07610-9
DOI
10.1038/s41598-022-07610-9
URI
https://kumel.medlib.dsmc.or.kr/handle/2015.oak/44289
Appears in Collections:
1. School of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Internal Medicine (내과학)
1. School of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Obstetrics & Gynecology (산부인과학)
1. School of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Radiology (영상의학)
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