Seasonal Trend of Viral Prevalence and Incidence of Febrile Convulsion: A Korea Public Health Data Analysis

Abstract

Febrile convulsion (FC) is the most common seizure disease in children, which occurs with a fever. We investigated the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service data of patients aged between 6 months and 5 years at the time of FC diagnosis. Diseases that can cause seizures with fever, such as neoplasms, metabolic disorders, nervous system disorders, cerebrovascular diseases, perinatal problems, and congenital abnormalities, were excluded. Weekly virus-positive detection rate (PDR) data were obtained from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency for adenovirus, parainfluenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV), influenza virus, coronavirus (HCoV), rhinovirus (HRV), bocavirus, metapneumovirus (HMPV), rotavirus, norovirus, and astrovirus. Using the Granger test, we then analyzed the monthly PDR and investigated the association between FC incidence and monthly PDR. We additionally identified monthly and seasonal FC incidence trends using the autoregressive integrated moving average. Between 2015 and 2019, 64,291 patients were diagnosed with FC. Annually, the incidence was the highest in May and the lowest in October. Most patients were diagnosed during the spring (26.7%). The PDRs for HRSV, HCoV, HRV, HMPV, and norovirus were associated with FC incidence after 1 month.