Seasonal Trends in the Prevalence and Incidence of Viral Encephalitis in Korea (2015-2019)

Abstract

Viral infections are a common cause of encephalitis. This study investigated the relationship between the incidence of encephalitis and that of respiratory and enteric viral infections in all age groups from 2015 to 2019, using the Health Insurance Review and Assessment (HIRA) Open Access Big Data Platform. We identified monthly incidence patterns and seasonal trends using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The Granger causality test was used to analyze correlations between encephalitis incidence and the positive detection rate (PDR) at 1-month intervals. A total of 42,775 patients were diagnosed with encephalitis during the study period. The incidence of encephalitis was highest in the winter (26.8%). The PDRs for respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) and coronavirus (HCoV) were associated with the trend in encephalitis diagnosis in all age groups, with a 1-month lag period. In addition, an association with norovirus was observed in patients aged over 20 years, and with influenza virus (IFV) in patients aged over 60 years. This study found that HRSV, HCoV, IFV, and norovirus tended to precede encephalitis by 1 month. Further research is required to confirm the association between these viruses and encephalitis.