Prediction of longitudinal clinical outcomes after acute myocardial infarction using a dynamic machine learning algorithm

Abstract

Several regression-based models for predicting outcomes after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have been developed. However, prediction models that encompass diverse patient-related factors over time are limited. This study aimed to develop a machine learning-based model to predict longitudinal outcomes after AMI. This study was based on a nationwide prospective registry of AMI in Korea (n = 13,104). Seventy-seven predictor candidates from prehospitalization to 1 year of follow-up were included, and six machine learning approaches were analyzed. Primary outcome was defined as 1-year all-cause death. Secondary outcomes included all-cause deaths, cardiovascular deaths, and major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) at the 1-year and 3-year follow-ups. Random forest resulted best performance in predicting the primary outcome, exhibiting a 99.6% accuracy along with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.874. Top 10 predictors for the primary outcome included peak troponin-I (variable importance value = 0.048), in-hospital duration (0.047), total cholesterol (0.047), maintenance of antiplatelet at 1 year (0.045), coronary lesion classification (0.043), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide levels (0.039), body mass index (BMI) (0.037), door-to-balloon time (0.035), vascular approach (0.033), and use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor (0.032). Notably, BMI was identified as one of the most important predictors of major outcomes after AMI. BMI revealed distinct effects on each outcome, highlighting a U-shaped influence on 1-year and 3-year MACE and 3-year all-cause death. Diverse time-dependent variables from prehospitalization to the postdischarge period influenced the major outcomes after AMI. Understanding the complexity and dynamic associations of risk factors may facilitate clinical interventions in patients with AMI.