Prognostic nutritional index as an early predictor of mortality in patients with severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome: multicenter retrospective study in South Korea

Abstract

Background and aim: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a fatal tick-borne infectious disease lacking effective treatments or vaccines. Early identification of prognostic factors is essential for optimizing clinical management. This study investigated the predictors for mortality in SFTS patients.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective multicenter cohort study of 413 SFTS patients hospitalized in South Korea from 2013 to 2024. Clinical and laboratory data were comprehensively analyzed to evaluate associations between in-hospital mortality and various inflammatory, immune, and nutritional biomarkers. Cox regression and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed to identify risk factors.

Results: 413 patients diagnosed with SFTS were included and In-hospital mortality was 17% (70/413). Multivariate Cox regression identified older age (HR: 1.042; 95% CI: 1.014–1.071), elevated PT(INR) (HR: 109.57; 95% CI: 19.79–606.57), and lower prognostic nutritional index (PNI) (HR: 0.937; 95% CI: 0.886–0.990) as early predictors of mortality. Time-dependent ROC analysis demonstrated predictive accuracy, with AUCs of 0.512 for age, 0.857 for PT(INR), and 0.694 for PNI at 30 days. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed significant survival differences for patients stratified by PNI (< 40.75), PT(INR) (≥ 0.97), and age (≥ 59 years).

Conclusions: PNI, PT(INR), and age were identified as key early predictors of mortality in SFTS. PNI, as a novel biomarker, was found to be a useful index for risk level and treatment strategies in SFTS patients.